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tv   Street Signs  CNBC  January 18, 2013 2:00pm-3:00pm EST

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auctioned off this week. for top sellers, it is not about horse poir but star power. cars are expected to sell for millions of dollars. there is this 1955 mercedes. used to be owned by clark gable. should sell for $2 million. now james khan drove up to the toll booth in this car and saw his end. we don't have an estimate but it is sure to be very popular. of can course not all celebrities cars do well. one of the general lees, the cars in the dukes of hazard, failed to sell yesterday because it didn't meet estimate. problem there, there are a lot of general lees. one car that is rare, the original batmobile. this car used in the tv series with adam west. can you see it here in action. there were ripl replicas made bt
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this is the original. it could fetch up to $5 million. which batmobile is your favorite. that's coming up later on closing bell. >> wow, the real batmobile. >> that looks cool. see you at the inauguration monday. "street signs" begins right now. >> welcome to "street signs." the word of the day may have to be asia. china's economy descending and even the rising sun is rising again and the guy that called the housing crash, can kyle bash, exclusively here with his bets right now. herb is here too and he has seven stocks he says are at risk. we will challenge him a bit. john mcafee alive and he will ask why terrorist were here in central america and we lay out the 10 commandments mandy, of the fed.
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>> congratulations. you have now clocked up the third straight gains of dow and s&p to begin the new year even though of course today we are looking soggy and mixed. if the dow can stay positive where it is right now, just by a whisker, it'll be up for the seventh time in eight sessions. let's get to bob and rick santelli. bob pisani, what are we doing on friday? we are just kind of doing nothing right now. meandering around. but we have been up for three straight weeks. >> i'm happy guy. we are in the heart of the earning season. big industrial companies are all reporting, something important is happening. individual companies are moving on their own earnings reports and not moving the all around markets around. look at industrial companies that reported today. here is the nasdaq. put up industrial companies here. important thing, ge for example came out. good earnings report. it is on the up side, parker hanifan on the up side.
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johnson controls with a bad outlook on the company. everything is moving individually and not afeking the overall stock market. people have been asking whether you should be moving into the industrial names and out of the bank names p and certainly happening in the last two weeks. so we've seen big banks looking tired these days. that's not an accurate number here. j.p. morgan with the down side as can you see. a lot of those have been topping out so there is interest of row out of the banks and into the industrials. finally, i want it to point out. look at the affect it has on other semi conductors over all. intel is down big. look at texas instrument, all those are flat to slightly to the upside. bottom line here is if you look at some of the names, they are moving individually and not affecting the markets. back to you. >> really is a company by company situation this earning season. bob, thank you very much. rick, what are you watching in the bond pits? >> we are watching equities
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closely because of issue with the treasury market in particular. we're not going anywhere very addressively. if you look at a chart going back it may of the five-year you can see this maturity certainly does demonstrate what type of a range treasuries truly are in. even though we are at the top of the yield range. should equities break out of this five-year high scenario. many traders of course think rate will go higher but the real key is how much higher before they effect what causing them to go higher in terms of stocks. we believe some clues will be on the 30th of this month when we bring out our first look, advanced look on fourth quarter gdp and some trivia for you and brian. just showing the batmobile. batmobile a concept car called 1955 lincoln mfutura that they turn into that car. google the '55 lincoln futura.
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>> thanks, rick. >> the leading voice ahead of the housing crash has been critical of hyper government spending. he hate the japanese yen and is now going back to investing in sub prime bonds. he is with our own david favor downtown and he is kyle bass. >> thank you very much. of course, kyle bass a friend of yours and friend of mine. funny who you find hanging around town sometimes. kyle, nice to have you here at the new york stock exchange. >> nice to be here. >> let's start off with japan. if there is any trade you have been most associated with, it is that japanese trade. the basic idea their gdp is out of control and getting worse. they have a plan now to reflight the economy. they are printing a lot of money. 2% is the inflation rate they want. why is that not going to help the japanese economy. many people think it will. >> i think if you study the situation deeply, you see that japanese debt is about 24 times central government tax revenues. when you get into that, when you
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sail into that zone of insolvency, nothing you can do can help, in my opinion. they would have imploded under their own weight a few years down the road. now they talk about targeting 2% inflation. they don't realize it will force them to explode sooner. >> your criticism is well known, even to japanese ministers of finance, i would argue. >> first of all, when you think about a crisis, 99.9% of the people get it wrong. when you think about 20 years of the procycal cality, the owner ship of bonds of japan is the institutional community. they buy the bonds because they have 28 basis points of yield on the five-year and 70 on the ten. the only way you invest on a bond like that is if they promise deflation. when they tell you they will target 2% deflation the swing will detonate the time bomb. >> you believe your time line has been moved up. >> correct. >> some say, kyle, you have been
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with david many times over the last three or four years. you guys have had the similar conversation. it hasn't happened. why should i think it is ever going to happen? >> so we've had the conversation over the last two just to correct you. >> is that all it is? >> second of all, i say, when you think about the end of this 70-year debt super cycle, it would be naive of anyone to say they would predict it with any kind of precision. what i'm telling you is all of the component of the equation are in place for all of a sudden this to go off. >> all of a sudden. what does that mean? >> when it happens, when 20 years of the pro psychly cality of thought turns, it turns all at once. the end is strongest right before it breaks. interest rates are lowest right before they break. i think what you have to think about it is what causes the qualitative slip. the belief in the pir tis pants minds that this is an untenable situation. the clock started a few months ago. >> you perhaps would have said the same thing about italy when we watched italian bonds hit 7%.
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seems like that clock slowed down markedly. why wouldn't the japanese do the same? and i don't know if you agree with the argument that the clock slowed down. >> first of all, i didn't say that about italy. today japan spends 50 percent on debt service. their rates cost them another 25 percent of revenue. 2 percent move in their rates and they detonate. >> but 70 basis points on ten-year. 2 percent is 200 basis points. multiples of what they pay on ten-year paper right now. >> you don't have to look back very far to see that rate in japan very many years. very few people get this right. and if the japanese government is essentially been dismonest with the constituents in japan. i would advise everyone that lives in japan it spend their yen on something. look at transaction the soft bank did with sprint, 20 billion
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into sprint. there's $32 billion worth of m & a and all buying western assets. if i were them, i would take every yen i had and buy a western asset. when the elites, corp rates and households realize they are in an untenable situation they will export the yen. the yen will collapse and then they lose control of rates. this is what is likely to happen going forward. >> when will we know the day is here? . what will be the tell? >> the tell is -- and this is not for the cnbc audience, but when the swaps curve start pricing inflation, i think that's it. >> any prediction? >> yeah, i think we started the clock. it'll take a couple years. 18 months to 24 monthes from now. >> something else, japanese and world investors have been focussing on investors from japan and china. south china seas. as someone who studied japan carefully for a number of years, is that something you're focused on? >> yes. first of all, there is an
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informal boycott by chinese soes. the japanese and chinese perspective, ping's father fought in the second japan war. abe says he will put cabinet members on tsinkaku islands. these people won't wake up and love each other again. 20% goes to china, that's $340 billion. we think that number can be down 50% in the last quarter. and it is a secular change. they are going elsewhere to procure goodness china. japan's gdp is falling at an alarming rate. the change in a dollar/yen won't restore competitiveness? japan. the people buying japanese stongs are picking up a dime in front after bulldozer. think they need to be careful with what they are doing. >> brian, back to you at hq. >> i know you've been talking about japan, a huge trade for
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you. but you are also a proud american and proud texan. where are you investing in united states right now? >> so, anything that has to do with u.s. housing, we're long. and that's a basic way of saying that we have, you know, a huge position in the mortgage bonds that we bet against years ago. we own mortgage servicing rights, companies. we own companies that are providing private mortgage insurance to the conforming marketplace. anything that has to do with housing flattening out and getting a little bit better, we're invested in. we are very long u.s. cyclical recovering in housing and we are very afraid of what is going on in the village around the world. >> how much of the recovery is real? how much of the recovery is just fed injected hopium? >> look, there have been 24 housing busts since 1980. pete detrough, has taken 6 1/2
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years. those associated with banking crises is 7 1/2. all housing peaked in '06. we're about at the time at which things decide to flatten out and turn. when you think about what the fed is doing, it is enabling congress, not necessarily turning the housing market around. >> however, i will jump in, absolutely. i think it is very bold what you are saying about japan. i would be very interested to know what you are saying about china. what is the your stance on the economy there? >> i don't know which numbers to believe. we don't have any positions in china. i don't know what you own. i don't know which numbers you are supposed to believe, the government's numbers or real numbers and power numbers or the government's official gdp number of 8. what we look at in china that worries me, they extended 50% almost three years in a row. that's the u.s. lending $8 trillion into our economy every
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year for the last three years. nonforming loans are about 1% when historically they are 19. i think china is setting itself up for a big problem down the road. not today, but maybe a few years down the road. >> of course bringing it back it here in the states and wrapping it up, the u.s. is potentially setting itself up for a problem down the road not too far. we're not japan. we're not close to japan yet. but we may be in your opinion? >> yeah. i just think we are further down the road behind japan. we are spending 11% roughly, 10% on our central government fax revenue on interest. i was joking with you beforehand, around the office we make this analogy to what the republicans aeb democrats are doing. when the central bank is buying all the bonds, there is no consequence for central. i say where is the ten-year? i don't see a bond crisis. >> can i jump back in? kyle, here is something i need to you do for me, all right.
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turn in the term bond eunuch. the bond vigilantes are gone. what they are doing is gone. right? there is no bond market that can be the vigilante to add the natural balance of the market. >> that's right. what you are going to see is people start it really react in the currency markets to the proveligacy. republicans and democrats have hundred foot puts with 40 feet of break and 30 mile an hours of wind and they look at each other and say, good, good. well just move to the next hole. that's why we are today and where we will be unless the bond markets call them out and the fed holds the bond market back. >> kyle, well leave it there. we appreciate your time and insights. thank you. >> thanks very much, david. we have breaking news on boeing. ray lahood addressing the 787
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dreamliner trouble. our own phil lebeau is in chicago. what are we hearing, phil? >> this is the first time we heard from the secretary of transportation since the faa grounded the dreamliner on wednesday. this is moving fractionally. an whole lot of movement. the question put to secretary of transportation, is this a grounding that could possibly be lifted by next week. here is what he had to say. >> this is complicated because we want to make sure we get it right. and the flying public expect us to get it right. and so, it's going to take a little bit of time. >> can you get it done by early next week? >> you know what, i just -- i don't know the answer to that. i'm not the one doing the examination. and the work and so we will just -- well see where it takes us. >> meanwhile, in japan today, investigators of the ntsb and faa had a chaps to look that
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787, the one that had the emergency landing earlier this week. getting back to the secretary of transportation, mandy and brian, there are a boeing working with the faa could come up with something by early next week. communication continues between boeing and faa but we are aways from the faa signing off and insuring batteries on these play planes are safe. >> thank you. see you next week. >> you too. >> are you there god? it's me. ben bernanke. pimco handing down 10 commandments from the fed. we will get divine intervention from pimco. >> an interview with john mcafee. he has a home here in america an he will be here to tell us where he is and what he's been up to.
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hear me! all hear me! all pay heed, the lord, the lord jehovah, has given unto you these 15 -- wait, 10, 10 commandments. >> well, they're not quite carved in stone but with ben bernanke also has quite a few tasks on his check list. pimco came up with 10
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commandments for the chairman. let's bring in pimco and first on your list, let's play offense. explain. >> not quite the charlston heston version of the 1950s. we know that after 2007, 2008, the fed, his actions were meant mostly to buffer the economy against a big shock to it and of course to financial markets but the access now and actions since september are have been meant toward strengthening the economy even when it hasn't weakened materially from the growth trend. the mantra for this year is to print, print, print. to try and get nominal gdp which is gdp looked at before inflation adjustment. to 5% instead of recent 4% running at 4. the extra percentage point in growth, if it happens, is because of the fed's printing of money coinage could mean up to a million new jobes. but it is very difficult to get there. i'm still very skeptical. but the fed will try as it might by printing a trillion dollars this year and to -- again to
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play offense rather than just play defense. >> we don't have time to do all lists. we picked out help housing. i don't know if you just heard our interview with kyle bass. i asked him about the down side to the fed and what they are doing in the housing market. is the fed really helping housing? >> it is. and so pimco for the first time in seven years is petting as well in an upswing on the housing market. you can do that in different wayes. through physical markets, through nonagency mortgages or credits and equities that relate to the market as kyle bass said. they are helping the housing market in one particular way by keeping rate low. they do that through the zero interest rate policy, purchases on communications. there are three other things the feds could do and ben bernanke said a month ago in new york, these are the three. one is to look at supervisory things. including tell banks yes we want you to tighten credit but don't
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tighten too much. secondly, when crafting dodd-frank regulation, let's consider housing a little bit and the state of it. finally, analytical, it has legions of phds to help other agencies in fixing the housing finance dilemma. the fed can help housing even more going beyond just interest rates. >> thou shall not help housing. once again, we appreciate the ten here. you have saving the savers. and herb greenburg, if you're listening, this one's for you. it is hard it save money these days when you consider how low the interest rate are, it is a double edge spord sword. hurting the housing and hurting savers. >> fed concluded keeping rates low is to the benefit of debtors. and not to worry about the net impact because it is beneficial. savers are getting hurt. of course rates are below the inflation rate. but there is another side to this, to think about whether the balance is shifting rather than helping debtors. think about the stock of
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savings. money just setting aside, getting squandered in the sense that because the fed is intervening, helping uncle sam remitting its interest payments back to the treasury, to the tune of a hundred billion a year, it gives congress the free ride to avoid making tough decisions. and investments are what drive long-term economic growth through productivity and that boost the standard of living. the fed's got to be careful about the impact it is having on that stock of savings. because in some ways, by helping washington, hurting investment. >> it does take the onus off washington to be responsible, doesn't it? >> it does. >> thank you for joining us. have a great long weekend. >> thanks, tony. next up, jaw-dropping stat on just how many americans are now accepting social security disability. get ready. put your drink down. because it's a doozy. >> plus, don't say, he didn't warn you. herb is here to tell us why he is worried about big named
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stocks he is working over right now. h is a high flyer red flag folks, stick around. what are you doing? nothing. are you stealing our daughter's school supplies and taking them to work? no, i was just looking for my stapler and my... this thing. i save money by using fedex ground and buy my own supplies. that's a great idea. i'm going to go... we got clients in today. [ male announcer ] save on ground shipping at fedex office.
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with multiple lacerations to the wing and a fractured beak. surgery was successful, but he will be in a cast until it is fully healed, possibly several months. so, if the duck isn't able to work, how will he pay for his living expenses? aflac. like his rent and car payments? aflac. what about gas and groceries? aflac. cell phone? aflac, but i doubt he'll be using his phone for quite a while cause like i said, he has a fractured beak. [ male announcer ] send the aflac duck a get-well card at getwellduck.com.
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and we have this just into cnbc. u.s. appeals court upheld the wisconsin law limiting collective bargaining by unions. in a decision handed down moments ago the circuit court reversed a portion of the lower court ruling that avoided part of the 2011 law championed by wisconsin governor scott walker. all in although, looks like a win for wisconsin. all right, time for things that make you go hmm. and today's number, 10.9 million. that is the number of people receiving social security disability insurance as of december 2012. that, my friends, 80% more than were on the program just eight years ago. and our second -- it is two for try, mandy. and our second to make you go hmm, is 6%. that's the number of people who went off disability and returned
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to work last year, according to forbs. next week we will dig into the numbers and ask why. some say it is a grej owth of wn in the workplace. otheris say there is a lot of fraud out there. we will get to the bottom of it. >> we certainly will. in the meantime, let's get to herb. a red flag on some high-flying stocks. i would like to know, a what makes them look vulnerable here. >> great question. over the next month, six weeks or so, we see companies come out they are priced for perfection. now what is priced for perfection easy for you to say, varies. it is in the eyes of beholder. when i look at my list, you look at price earnings multiple. going forward or trailing, which ever you want it use. and stock prices. some go up and they don't go down. i put together lists of those. the people i talk to seem it shake their head at it. let's go through the list and we will break it down further.
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top of the list, salesforce.com. 87 times earnings. such a high number. then growth by acquisition story. under armour. and look down the little to tractor supply. costco, such a great company, but hits the list because it has to do everything just right. now of course sherwin-williams. if we break it down to the top three, based on pe or just crazy run in the stock, i will break it down this way. and i have lumber -- by the way, these three, jim cramer favorites. no offense to jim. everything has to go right. lumber liquidators. sherwin-williams, which by the way, it has been declining. you want it keto keep an eye on that. i know increasingly people looking at that over and over. they know there is a new part to the story because there is continued risk there. well keep watching that.
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>> actually you mentioned jim cramer. we've got jim cramer. he is currently running out to the set. there he is. come on out, jim. >> before jim gets mic'd up, i want it push back on you a little bit buddy. >> sure. >> first, beauty is not in the eye of the beholder, it is in the eye of the shareholder. and risky stock valued and why are they so far off their lows and are they close to bankruptcy so it has outsized gains which are somewhat artificial. >> i don't disagree with you. it is just a matter of just remember it all has to go just right. >> price to perfection, as they say, jim. >> all right, chief. what are the price earnings a year ago for sherwin-williams? for costco? >> right. >> oh, you mean like -- yeah, sorry. yes of course you're right on that. >> i just want it raise the point that -- >> i'm not going to defend all ten any more.
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ka ching, ka ching. tractor supply. but some of these, i mean, sherwin-williams was absolutely underpriced. i'm in a biepd on some of these. if we were -- you have to wait for a pull back because they move so much. sherwin-williams, higher price point -- >> look at the nation of -- >> and pimco says they were investing in housing. >> right. what about the falling sales growth? i put up my chart and say, i'm surprised to see the sales sliding the way they are, the growth. the growth. >> comp store numbers are fabulous at their paint stores. remember, the cost of paint has come down rather dramatically. and it is a housing play. >> i guess it. >> but masco, stanley works -- >> i get it, i get it. >> i run a distinguish between ulta, something i know you challenged me on and i backed way on. you put up a certain number of stores, ulta will not grow like it did.
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>> sure stz i have trouble with the housing place because they may actually be based on say 700,000 housing starts and maybe we go to 1.5 million housing starts. >> i'm not making any broad calls here. i'm trying to say these the companies that the guys on the other side say, they are ripping their hair out every time -- >> see me there. >> using metrics you used here as to why you think these high flyers could be vulnerable, how long have you been wrong? >> oh, my gosh. >> my, when did you start -- >> wrong and early. wrong and early. >> by the way -- >> no, netflix right. chipotle, right. and cramer, under armour -- >> let herb defend himself. >> as i told john mackey, co-ceo of whole foods --
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>> and former tight end. >> as he was walking off the set here, i said, red flags i flew over your company many years ago, and i con grat rated him. he did a great job. but there are plenty of people raising issues. but point here, this is a street that expects just perfection. >> but if it gets it, it goes higher. >> isn't it a shame chipotle reported a number not so great. stock didn't go down as much as during previous disappointment. because price earnings multiple is shrinking. and i just think what happens is if they miss, they are cut in half. if they make it, they go up. herb, since i first met you -- >> i have no interest in the stock market. i own no stocks and i will say this. companies in four years, ulta's revenue doubled. >> yes. >> gross margin is expanding,
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doesn't that merit a 27 pe which is not historically outrageous for that growth rate? >> i can't wait to hear this. >> maybe now. but as they grow, and as they put stores in perhaps smaller markets and put them closer together, they could run into the home depot cannibalization. >> one time he said, cramer, you're too much. i know you didn't like it because it sounds like -- you have to be skeptical and what i love about herb is herb keeps me skeptical and it should keep the people at home -- >> is that the only thing you love about him. >> he is a loveable guy. >> there are many reasons. >> generosity in planning dinners that he owes is not one of the things you love.
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>> maybe was it the chicken -- >> he is saying it a grand slam. the pvh portion of jc penny is a grand slam. and i like mandy very much. you are real good, you know that. >> he is a good egg. >> herb is about as good as -- >> absolutely. >> he is right more than wrong, by far. >> jim, thank you. >> all right, well, the can't miss exclusive interview with john mcafee. he is live, he is alive. he is here. on "street signs." just for you. you will want it heto hear what has it say. trust us.
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st. john mcafee's life hately has been crazy. john is safely back in america but the latest twist to the story takes it up a notch. his belief the terrorist group hezbollah is operating in belize and john joins us from his new home of portland, oregon. as well as robert frank has been following as much as anybody. robert? >> reporter: you're wanted for questioning in the murder of your neighbor in belize, gregory fall. you want to guatemala, deported
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to the u.s. what are you doing now and tell us about this hezbollah theory and how you discovered it. >> okay. i'm currently in portland, oregon, as you know. can you see the scenery behind me. and i'm here to work with a cartoonist for almost a year has been working on cartoon novel of some of my experiences in belize. i'm also doing a movie and production company is across the border in canada. so it is a very appropriate place for me to work from. as to how i found out about the threat to america, as you know, i've had some serious issues with the government of belize. in april of last year, stormed my property in the jungle, shot one mif dogs. kept me handcuffs in the sun for 14 hours. destroyed about half million dollars worth of property and left with no charges. that is because i had refused to
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pay a very large bribe that government had asked for. they came back a couple of days later and asked if i was ready to reconsider the money and i said, no, i think i'm going to go to the press. which i did. and we have had a running battle ever since then. >> john, just to skip ahead. i understand you then equipped 75 computers or a lot of computers with special software that would monitor the activity of the users of those computers. you then had 23 women and i guess six men hired as spies. you then gave those computers to the government and were able to track what those computers were seeing and that's where you learned of this plot. tell us exactly what you saw in those computers, or learned. >> okay. i wouldn't call them spies exactly. we're not quite that high-tech. the computers used a very simple software key stroke logging software that would call home. which is me, or any of my designates, and logged key strokes. from the key strokes we gained
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everyone's pass words to facebook, e-mail and so on. i'm not justifying this for from a moral standpoint but in my mind i was at war. the government destroyed my property, killed my dog, threatened me. i think in war, as in love, all bets are off. so the key stroke log-in software was used to gain pass words. pass words gained access to accounts. and from it, i didn't know what i was going to discover, quite frankly. i don't even know why i did this even perhaps a wish for revenge or who knows. but they did me wrong. got no apology, and so this is what i did. the first thing i discovered was everyone in the government is having affairs. nothing surprising about that. we had to sift through endless hours of tedious love talk. one of the things we did find out is that the government of belize has been, for over two years, changing the identities of lebanese males, giving them brand new identities with
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european sounding names, and then shuffling them through nicaragua into america. about the time that i was about to go public with this, one of these gentleman was arrested in mexico and it made international news. though i think very little was published here in the states. but it is a real threat. at least ten per month for two years. has been -- >> john? >> yes ma'am. >> if you believe hezbollah was operating in belize and sounds like a potential threat to the united states, why haven't you gone to the u.s. government? or have you? have you talked with the u.s. government? >> i mean, it is not like they don't know i'm here. the blog is read by everyone. i have -- i have talked to gentlemen at the u.s. embassy in belize. >> john, i have to interrupt you. they say quote, i'm not asquare that anyone at the embassy ever discussed this with mr. mcafee
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and maybe they hadn't admitted this and they say no, they haven't talked to. >> you well, if the government doesn't wack want to talk about it or admit something is going on, then they won't admit we talked. now i did this on my own. it is clear in many cases, the united states government is aware of threats. and chooses to do nothing because there may be wider threats that i have no knowledge of. but i do have knowledge of this and i'm talking about it. they haven't shut me up yet. i haven't been arrested. the cia hasn't issued a warning. and i will continue to talk about this. >> i do mean this with all due respect, but your stories are wild. right? >> no doubt. >> why should we believe you? >> well, i mean, if you actually go through the blog and actually read and listen to audio tapes, for example, of officials within the government, they are clearly not made up.
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it is simply too real. and the press has picked up on any number of things. a training camp in nicaragua. the israeli press picked up on that and published it. it was not published in america. the fact that a hezbollah activist with a real belize passport was caught in mexico. where did he get the passport? >> fair enough. would you prefer to be in your position having gone what you went through and are still going through, or have your old life in belize back? >> oh, i would rather have pli old life in belize back. but that's not possible. i was living quite happily until 42 heavily armed soldiers stormed my property and destroyed my life. it is just what happened. things have you no control over change the course of your life. but yes, of course, i would rather be back in belize. the fishing is great there. >> john, one quick question.
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i should mention i reached out to the government of belize. they will not comment. there is no one there who would answer or respond to that today. on the movie issue, whether you believe your story or not, your life made an interesting movie. the rights were sold to josh davis's e-book. is that separate from the movie you were doing and tell us, what is the movie you are doing in canada. >> okay, there are three movies in the works. one is a satire by sasha baron cohen, also by warner brothers. i'm looking forward to that, by the way. i love his work. there is the movie or option to make the movie on josh davis's e-book. then there's mine. josh davis spent a total of three weeks with me. i spent 67 years with me. i think my movie will have a more complete story. >> john, thank you so much for joining us. >> you're welcome, sir. >> cnbc contributed to tonight's two-hour date line on nbc devoted to john's story.
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check it out tonight called "trouble if paradise." 9:00 p.m. eastern time. should be a good view. listen, if -- >> fascinating. >> in john ae story is true -- >> first of three stories. >> incredible. >> look at markets. dow is now on track to close at five-year high. it is sitting flat but slightly to the upside, 17 points. up next, well be talking amazon. this may mean a high flyer but will sore even higher. >> freaky friday trade. calls to buy this, both rim and netflix. yeah. we'll be right back. retirement. sit back, relax,. pull out the paper and...what!!?? an article that says a typical family pays $155,000 in "wall street" fees on their 401(k)s? seriously? seriously. you don't believe it? search it, "401k 155k." then go to e-trade. and roll over your old 401(k)s to a new e-trade retirement account. we have every type of retirement account. none of them charge annual fees, and all of them offer low cost investments. why? because we're not your typical wall street firm,
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yes, you could. go national. go like a pro. coming up on "the closing bell" the economy has shown signs improving lately. and the fed's first reaction to the financial crisis. we will hear from somebody who says those transcripts are one more reason why we need to end the fed. wow. plus raising the eligibility aid for social security would save the government hundreds of billions of dollars. but is that ever really going to happen? we have that debate ahead as
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well. maria, looking forward to seeing you from post nine here at the stock exchange for the most important hour of the trading day. see you at the top of the trading hour, mandy. >> sure will. let's look atlas vegas sands and winds. >> wells fargo upgrading las vegas sands. hiking valuation range from 60 to 70. also raising winn. a buck 40 to a buck 60. big call, folks, by the analyst. they were concerned, but now expect 16% market growth this year, above the wall street consensus. >> also a downgrade for visa. >> rw baird downgrading visa. saying nothing is wrong with the company, but after the tremendous run its had for three years, slowing retail sales, less margin expansion et cetera, et cetera, et cetera, it's gone too far too fate, we are
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downgrading the name. pacific crest outperforming a $346 target. they say mobile is the game changer. amazon a the mobile commerce space. forecast 25% growth through 2014. >> netflix, lots and lots of comments today. >> a lot of comments. jenny upgraded to a buy from neutral and itg majestic, also out positive, saying they think subscriber editions are trending better than expected. however, it was initiated underperform at albert fried. something to note on netflix, short interest still very high. 27% of the float here is bet short. sixth most shorted stock in the s&p. >> the short is great. >> all right. the world looks better from down here. >> up next on "street signs," we were just talking netflix, should you pick up some rim, too? >> gained of bizarro day. freaky friday, swapperoo day.
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well, rim shares are really on a tear after jeffrey's upgraded it to a buy and praised
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the price tag to 19.50. let's bring in the analyst behind the upgrade. what is this based on, peter? >> really three things. we think we can win with this column three ways. the first is the blackberry enterprise server 10 will allow you to get your blackberry e-mail on your iphone an android device, and we think that's a compelling offering. frankly we think the existing offerings that are out there aren't as secure or slick or as fast. the second way we think we can win is a blackberry 10 handset sells reasonably well, the bar is very low so we don't think they have to sell more than 4 million units a quarter for this to have an impact and for them to have money and the last way to win is you get some kind of licensing deal sale or some realization of the assets that way. >> but what are the odds of blackberry 10 failing, peter? >> actually quite good. if we didn't have this blackberry enterprise server capability and we didn't get comfortable with it, that it was a great offering and that that market was huge, we wouldn't have been comfortable upgrading
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this just on blackberry 10 because frankly they are going against google obviously and apple. >> one thing i liked about your note is you said it looks like they won't lose their core base as much as they thought and the number of developers working on apps has exceeded your expectations. how do you think they have done that? >> they have kept it simple. >> okay. i do believe we've got some technical difficulties. apologies to you, peter. certainly not your fault. >> i'll finish that answer in a way for him, guys. if you're interested in this. here's what peter said. he thinks the core installed base has been starved for a legitimate upgrade opportunity. i guess my next question to peter was going to be do you believe they can maintain their --? that's the problem. you lose your core install base. you have nobody to install to. i thinks they are still there. >> anecdotally a lot of people are turning back to blackberry. >> apparently he's right back.
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peter, what is the risk of them losing that core install base you just talked about? >> much lower. we think it's down around 25%, 30% and now that you get that experience on any device i think that's going to be a home run. >> peter, thank you very much. sorry for the technical problems. we'll see you again though. >> thanks for having me. next up, a very special throwback to this day in history. you're going to want to stick around for this. announcer ] howu turn an entrepreneur's dream... ♪ into a scooter that talks to the cloud? ♪ or turn 30-million artifacts... ♪ into a high-tech masterpiece? ♪ whatever your business challenge, dell has the technology and services to help you solve it. ♪ [ male announcer ] some day, your life will flash before your eyes. make it worth watching.
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